Last updated: March 2026
What Is a Sales Forecast?
A sales forecast projects your future revenue by analyzing the deals currently in your pipeline. Each deal carries a dollar value and a probability of closing. The simplest forecast multiplies value by probability to estimate expected revenue — but the best forecasters go further, modeling multiple scenarios so they can plan for a range of outcomes rather than betting on a single number.
This tool generates four scenarios simultaneously. Expected revenue gives you the probability-weighted total. Best Case assumes all deals above 30% probability close at full value. Worst Case applies a 50% haircut to expected revenue for conservative planning. Commit includes only deals above 80% probability — the revenue you can nearly guarantee. Together, these four numbers frame a realistic planning range for budgets, hiring, and resource allocation.
How to Build an Accurate Revenue Forecast
Ground probabilities in data. The biggest forecasting mistake is assigning deal probabilities based on optimism. Instead, look at your historical close rates by pipeline stage. If 40% of deals that reach the proposal stage ultimately close, set those deals at 40% — not 70% because the conversation went well.
Update regularly. A forecast is a living document. Review deal probabilities weekly. Move deals forward or backward based on buyer signals: champion engagement, budget confirmation, timeline urgency, and decision-maker involvement.
Track accuracy over time. Log your actual monthly revenue in the History tab and compare it against your forecast. Over quarters, you will discover whether your team systematically over-forecasts or under-forecasts, and you can apply a correction factor.
Use gap analysis for action planning. When your forecast falls short of your target, the gap tells you exactly how much additional pipeline you need. Divide the gap by your average deal size and win rate to calculate the number of new opportunities required.
Separate commit from expected. Your CFO wants the commit number — revenue that is near-certain. Your sales manager wants the expected number for coaching. Your VP wants the best-case number for stretch goals. All four scenarios serve different stakeholders.
Sales Forecasting vs. Pipeline Management
Pipeline management focuses on moving individual deals through stages — qualifying leads, running demos, sending proposals, and negotiating contracts. A sales forecast takes the output of your pipeline and translates it into revenue predictions over time. The pipeline answers "what am I working on?" while the forecast answers "how much will we close?"
The two are deeply connected. A healthy pipeline with realistic probabilities produces an accurate forecast. A pipeline stuffed with stale deals at inflated probabilities produces a forecast that misleads leadership and misallocates resources. Clean your pipeline first, then trust your forecast.
Use our Sales Pipeline tool to manage deal stages, then sync those deals into this forecaster with one click.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a sales forecast?
A sales forecast estimates future revenue by analyzing your pipeline of active deals. Each deal has a dollar value and a probability of closing. The forecast multiplies value by probability to produce an expected revenue figure, then layers in best-case, worst-case, and commit scenarios to give you a realistic range of outcomes.
What do the four forecast scenarios mean?
Expected multiplies each deal's value by its probability. Best Case takes all deals above 30% probability at full value. Worst Case applies a 50% haircut to the expected amount. Commit includes only deals above 80% probability at full value — revenue you can almost count on.
How do I improve forecast accuracy?
Base deal probabilities on your historical win rate at each stage rather than gut feeling. Update probabilities as deals progress. Log actual monthly results in the History tab and compare them against your forecast — over time, you'll see whether your team tends to over- or under-forecast and can calibrate accordingly.
Can I sync deals from the Sales Pipeline tool?
Yes. Click 'Sync from Pipeline' on the Deals tab to import all non-closed deals from the Sales Pipeline tool. Deal values, probabilities, and expected close dates carry over automatically. You can also add deals manually if you prefer.